referring to legality is self referential, since they enact the laws, everything they do can be legal. US could sentence commissioners to prison by enacting certain laws or declare war, we wouldn't certainly say 'they have a right to do that' in that situation.
Of course no one cares about random companies in Czechia or France getting pressured; it's not meant to sway public opinion in Sweden, otherwise it would have been a waste of influence (money). I think alephnerd operates on a higher level of abstraction in his commentary, and you mistake this as him making specific validity claims about the policies. I think your grievances stem from this gap in abstraction.
For example, he might personally support DSA/GDPR, but he says that the US generally views these as “non-tariff barriers” to US service companies[0] and doesn’t bother evaluating the policies themselves. essentially saying for the purposes of predicting how the US will react, it's sufficient to analyze how the US views them and the actual policy details lose relevance in that context. He also shared a detail[0] about how the US placed their lobbyists as commissioners on GDPR, which is an interesting operational detail that argues against the broad support argument you’re making. Another question is whether there would still be broad support for some policy after it has been enacted and its adverse effects have been felt.
> For example, he might personally support DSA/GDPR, but he says that the US generally views these as “non-tariff barriers” to US service companies[0] and doesn’t bother evaluating the policies themselves. essentially saying for the purposes of predicting how the US will react, it's sufficient to analyze how the US views them and the actual policy details lose relevance in that context. He also shared a detail[0] about how the US placed their lobbyists as commissioners on GDPR, which is an interesting operational detail that argues against the broad support argument you’re making. Another question is whether there would still be broad support for some policy after it has been enacted and its adverse effects have been felt.
This.
> I think alephnerd operates on a higher level of abstraction in his commentary, and you mistake this as him making specific validity claims about the policies. I think your grievances stem from this gap in abstraction.
This (but does make me sound kind of pretentious). I started my career in Tech Policy (and considered a career in academia for a hot second) before pivoting to being a technical IC and climbing the ladder. I am responding as I would when I was a TF.
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I am a supporter of multilateralism and do think the EU was a net benefit, but the EU's approach to unanimity should have been reformed during the 2004-07 expansion, and the Eurozone should have been decoupled from the political goals of the EU then unified. I'd probably say I lean closer to reformist academics like Draghi and Garicano.
It's easier to justify stock markets banning insider information because there are ignorant participants through their investment funds who we would like to protect. Why would we protect willing participants betting on arbitrary events? Even if we ban on this one too, should we in general be able to create a market that explicitly allows insider information for some arbitrary thing, insideinformationverywelcomemarket, where everyone is aware it's the main point of the market or shall we just protect these people from themselves?
> Why would we protect willing participants betting on arbitrary events?
Because some information affects the stock market. So Regulation FD already applies, for financial news.
> Even if we ban on this one too
The UK already banned this, see other comment above in this thread.
> insideinformationverywelcomemarket
You might as well as cut out the middleman, don't call it a "market" anymore, and just call it "crowdfunded-will-pay-reward-for-insider-information-website". Or, basically a crowdfunded TMZ. TMZ will pay thousands of dollars for non-financial info on celebs and then publish that news. That that point, you're just describing a slightly classier crowdfunded TMZ.
> Because some information affects the stock market. So Regulation FD already applies, for financial news.
Sure, but that has everything to do with what information you are allowed to make public, not with whether you should be allowed to bet on arbitrary other markets.
> You might as well as cut out the middleman, don't call it a "market" anymore, and just call it "crowdfunded-will-pay-reward-for-insider-information-website". [...]
The commodities markets in the US used to have no prohibition on insider trading until fairly recently. They still called it a market.
Nope, "just placing a bet" is still illegal if you’re trading on material non-public information (MNPI). Even if you don’t disclose anything, U.S. regulators can treat a prediction-market wager as a derivatives trade made with misappropriated confidential info.
Prediction-market contracts are either CFTC or SEC territory. Many "event contracts" are regulated as swaps (CFTC). If a contract references a single security/issuer, then it falls under security-based swap rules (SEC). Either way, trading them with MNPI risks liability under the applicable anti-fraud rules. (CFTC Rule 180.1 is guided by SEC 10b-5 case law on misappropriation.)
The CFTC uses the misappropriation theory: trading while breaching a duty to keep information confidential is prohibited, even if you never "tip" anyone. They’ve brought cases on this theory. CFTC enforcement and guidance explicitly cite misappropriation cases (Ruggles 2016, Motazedi 2015, EOX, etc) as "insider trading" analogs for non stock trading.
> They still called it a market.
I'm saying you can pivot your hypothetical company to a website-that-pays-for-news-like-TMZ. Last time I checked, they don't call TMZ a market.
Yes, as I said there are good arguments for allowing insider trading at least in some circumstances (and some arguments against).
Until fairly recently, there was no rule against insider trading in commodities in the US, and the market worked just fine.
My point in my earlier comment was that your question about 'why?' seemed a bit weird. You can look up the 'why?' relatively easily, even if you don't find it convincing.
why? The purpose of the prediction market is not to be fair to market participants, it's to aggregate information regarding an event. There is a public benefit to allowing participants to bet on insider information. It could be even argued there is nothing unfair about it if everyone is free to do it/can anticipate others might have insider info. If we actually limited the market to participants who have insider information(not feasible because we can't verify), that'd be a great public utility. this is the next best thing for all those who don't participate in it. These are specialized markets and we shouldn't rush to 'protect' people who bet on very technical events happening.
Many people do. I can't imagine ever going back to opening ten tabs for a question. It's not like information on the internet was bullshit-free pre-LLMs. For me, it's easier to verify information than to find it.
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