"The most damaging of these is overconfidence: the kind of optimism that leads governments to believe that wars are quickly winnable and capital projects will come in on budget despite statistics predicting exactly the opposite."
I think he is inferring idiotic overconfidence? Going to war with the wrong country, for the wrong reasons, killing, and mameing thousands of soldiers, and civilians; is idiotic overconfidence?
"things like actually being able to talk to that girl, ask for that raise, close that sale, take down that oppressor...these things benefit tremendously from irrational confidence." I'm not sure I would call these things overconfidence. I would call them the actions of a confident person?
Sure we all know overconfident people who get lucky(Donald Trump--with dad there to guide/bailout young Donald), but the overconfident people I have met--usually end up crashing, and burning, and hurting a lot of people. They are not respected, and don't get far. And many end up in jail.
And yes, according to this article; they end up in power? They do end up in power sometimes, but the ones I know all had enabling rich parents. I would term them Idiots with rich parents, over Overconfidence? Or, just the average politician?
Your premise is right from what we were given in this article. I have a feeling his book goes into more detail? I have a feeling the interviewer left out some critical information? I hope he left out information, because I'm confused with the example, and label of Overconfidence too! It's not being overconfident--it's being an irrational idiot? Then again, I'm confused with a lot of Psychology? I don't like/respect Psychologists who ponder, without a lot of evidence to back up their theory. It's just yaking, without evidence?
Actually, I think years ago, Allen Grenspan called this behavior, "Irrational Exuberance"? I think this is a better than Overconfidence? It's funny how "new theories" get recycled? B.F. skinner would be gleaming? Yes, we really don't have original ideas? We are essentiall just stealing other people's observations/thoughts/inventions; repackaging, and refining, and in the end--calling them our own?
I think he is inferring idiotic overconfidence? Going to war with the wrong country, for the wrong reasons, killing, and mameing thousands of soldiers, and civilians; is idiotic overconfidence?
"things like actually being able to talk to that girl, ask for that raise, close that sale, take down that oppressor...these things benefit tremendously from irrational confidence." I'm not sure I would call these things overconfidence. I would call them the actions of a confident person?
Sure we all know overconfident people who get lucky(Donald Trump--with dad there to guide/bailout young Donald), but the overconfident people I have met--usually end up crashing, and burning, and hurting a lot of people. They are not respected, and don't get far. And many end up in jail.
And yes, according to this article; they end up in power? They do end up in power sometimes, but the ones I know all had enabling rich parents. I would term them Idiots with rich parents, over Overconfidence? Or, just the average politician?
Your premise is right from what we were given in this article. I have a feeling his book goes into more detail? I have a feeling the interviewer left out some critical information? I hope he left out information, because I'm confused with the example, and label of Overconfidence too! It's not being overconfident--it's being an irrational idiot? Then again, I'm confused with a lot of Psychology? I don't like/respect Psychologists who ponder, without a lot of evidence to back up their theory. It's just yaking, without evidence?